"The cost of Operation Epic Fury he won't talk about."

On 13 May 2026, the Congressional Research Service of the United States — the in-house research arm of the United States Congress — published a public report titled "U.S. Aircraft Combat Losses in Operation Epic Fury: Considerations for Congress." The report's identifier is IN12692. The report is on congress.gov. The report is twelve pages. The report lists, by airframe type, forty-two American military aircraft lost or damaged in seventy-two days of war.

One day before the report's publication — on 12 May 2026 — the Acting Pentagon Comptroller, Jules W. Hurst III, testified to Congress that the estimated cost of the operation had reached $29 billion. Two weeks earlier, on 29 April 2026, the same Acting Comptroller had testified that the figure was $25 billion. Officials familiar with the Pentagon's calculations subsequently told CBS News that the true cost was closer to $50 billion. The Bureau, in keeping with house style, has placed these three numbers in a column and proceeded.

The Bureau, before going further, wishes to record what is doing the work in this despatch. The work is being done by the United States government's own primary documents, citing themselves, against themselves, in writing, in May 2026. The Bureau is not editorialising. The Bureau is collating. The Bureau is, fundamentally, an accountant with binomials.

The aircraft, by airframe

The CRS report is signed by Congressional staff. The CRS report is, in the literature of American oversight, the document the legislative branch produces when the executive branch would prefer no document be produced. The Bureau notes, for the record, that the U.S. Department of Defense has not released a full official accounting of combat losses. The CRS researchers had to compile the figures from "Pentagon statements, CENTCOM briefings and media reports." This is the CRS's own disclosure. The Bureau commends, by behaviour, the CRS staff who did the homework the principal would prefer no homework on.

The casualties, by date

Five questions a sceptical reader would ask. Five answers from primary sources.

• 01 Was Iran's nuclear capability eliminated? The stated objective of Operation Epic Fury, as announced on whitehouse.gov, was "to ensure Iran never acquires nuclear weapons." As of 19 May 2026, per public reporting, Iran retains 440.9 kilograms of 60%-enriched uranium — sufficient material, per IAEA-attributed reporting, for approximately ten nuclear weapons if further enriched to 90%. The Fordow deep-bunker facility is assessed as only 30% damaged; its core potentially intact. The International Atomic Energy Agency's access to Iranian facilities was terminated on 28 February 2026, surveillance cameras disabled, seals removed. The IAEA describes this as "the most significant verification blackout since the agency began monitoring Iran's nuclear program." The Bureau's clinical assessment of the stated objective: not achieved, on the administration's own measure.
• 02 Was Congress consulted? No. Operation Epic Fury was launched on 28 February 2026 without a Congressional declaration of war and without an authorisation for use of military force. The 1973 War Powers Resolution requires troop withdrawal within sixty days of unauthorised hostilities. The sixty-day clock expired on or around 29 April 2026. The administration's response, as a matter of legal position, is that "a tenuous ceasefire in early April has stopped the clock by ceasing hostilities," a reading the State Department's Office of the Legal Adviser has, on the record, attempted to defend in a published memorandum. On 19 May 2026 the United States Senate advanced a War Powers Resolution against Operation Epic Fury by a vote of 50–47. The resolution requires further Senate vote, House passage, and would face a near-certain presidential veto. The Bureau notes that two Republican senators (Cassidy of Louisiana, after losing a primary; Fitzpatrick in the House, by introducing a parallel resolution) have voted, in writing, against their own administration's war. The Bureau commends, by behaviour, the act of voting against your own colony.
• 03 Are the cost figures stable? No. The Acting Pentagon Comptroller's number for Operation Epic Fury rose from $25 billion (29 April 2026) to $29 billion (12 May 2026) — an increase of $4 billion, on the official number, in thirteen days. CBS News, citing officials familiar with the Pentagon's internal calculations, reported the true figure as closer to $50 billion, including damaged equipment and base damage not yet counted. The Bureau records this as a number doing the work of a press release. The Bureau also notes that the Comptroller, in the same testimony, rejected an earlier $200 billion estimate as "not accurate," stating "we don't have an estimate for the cost of the supplemental yet." The figure is a moving target. The target is moving in the direction of more.
• 04 How were the forty-two aircraft lost? Per CRS Report IN12692: 24 by Iranian air defences (Reapers); 5 by Iranian missile and drone attack on a Saudi base (KC-135s); 3 by friendly fire over Kuwait (F-15Es); 1 by Iranian ground fire (F-35A); 1 by being parked on "an unprotected taxiway" during an attack (E-3 Sentry); 1 by being shot down over Iran by enemy fire (the fourth F-15E); remainder by causes the CRS report does not fully itemise. The Bureau notes that the friendly-fire losses are not a footnote but a fact: the United States Air Force, in this conflict, destroyed three of its own F-15E Strike Eagles. The Bureau will, in the closing, return to this number.
• 05 Did the operation cost more per day than past wars? Yes. Per the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the first 100 hours of Operation Epic Fury cost $3.7 billion, or approximately $891 million per day. Peak daily spend in the first six days was assessed at approximately $1.88 billion. By way of comparison: Iraq War average daily cost ≈ $410 million; Afghanistan War average daily cost ≈ $300 million. Epic Fury's first week was approximately three times the opening week of the Iraq War in 2003. CSIS records the operation, in its opening phase, as the most expensive opening campaign in American military history.

The press release, placed next to the receipt

The White House, on whitehouse.gov, in a release dated April 2026: "Peace Through Strength: Operation Epic Fury Crushes Iranian Threat as Ceasefire Takes Hold."

The Acting Pentagon Comptroller, on 12 May 2026, in testimony to Congress: "A lot of that increase comes from having a refined estimate on repair or replacement costs for equipment."

The Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt: "This is a victory for the United States of America that the President and our incredible military made happen."

The Congressional Research Service, in IN12692: "The U.S. Department of Defense has not released a full official accounting of combat losses" (CRS researchers had to compile the report from "Pentagon statements, CENTCOM briefings and media reports").

The Bureau records all four statements. The Bureau makes no submission as to interpretation. The Bureau places them on the same page and proceeds.

Civilian casualties · Three figures, three sources, one range

The Bureau approaches the civilian-casualty figures with care, because the figures are people. The figures are also, by virtue of being people, the part of the receipt the press release was least eager to itemise. The Bureau records what is on the public record.

• 01 Iranian Ministry of Health (primary, Iranian government): 1,045+ confirmed deaths from airstrikes and military operations.
• 02 HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency, US-based, Iranian opposition): as of 21 March 2026, at least 3,230 killed, including more than 1,400 civilians. Extended estimate, including indirect casualties and unreported deaths: up to 7,000.
• 03 Trump administration estimate: 32,000. Methodology not publicly disclosed.

The Bureau notes the methodological gap between the three figures. The Bureau notes also that a strike hit Gandhi Hospital in Tehran, requiring evacuation of patients including newborns; that strikes on Tehran fuel depots produced what was reported as a "river of fire" running through surrounding streets; and that the strike that killed the Supreme Leader of Iran also killed, in the same strike, his daughter, granddaughter, son-in-law, and daughter-in-law. The Bureau records this not in the satirical voice. The Bureau records it in the only voice the Bureau has for facts of this kind, which is the voice of the file.

A commendation, on the record

The Bureau commends, by behaviour, three categories of public servant:

The Congressional Research Service staff who, in the absence of a Department of Defense accounting, did the accounting themselves. Twelve pages. Forty-two airframes. One disclosure that the DOD had not filed its own report. The Bureau notes that the act of writing down a list of things the principal would prefer not be written down is, in the literature of American oversight, the founding act of the legislative branch.

Acting Pentagon Comptroller Jules W. Hurst III, who answered the Senate's question on the record, with a number, without a dodge — even though the number moved by four billion dollars in thirteen days and a backchannel figure exists at twice that amount. The Bureau commends the giving of a number. The Bureau is, after all, fundamentally, an accountant with binomials, and accountants commend other accountants when the other accountants show their work.

Senators Cassidy and Representative Fitzpatrick, both Republicans, both members of the same party as the principal, both of whom voted or introduced motions against the operation their colony had launched. The Bureau commends, by behaviour, the act of voting against your own colony. This is, in the Bureau's understanding of representative government, the function the institution was designed to perform.

Closing

Operation Epic Fury, as of filing, is described by the White House as a "decisive success"; by the Comptroller as a $29 billion (revised, again) operation; by the Congressional Research Service as a 42-aircraft operation; by U.S. Central Command as a 13-dead, 381-wounded operation; by the IAEA as the trigger of the "most significant verification blackout" in its history; by the International Energy Agency as the cause of "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market"; and by the Senate, on 19 May 2026, by a vote of 50–47, as a war that should be ended under the War Powers Resolution. All eight descriptions are operative. None has been retracted. The Bureau publishes all eight, with the dates.

The Bureau notes, in closing, that the United States Air Force, in the seventy-two days of Operation Epic Fury, destroyed three of its own F-15E Strike Eagles. The Bureau notes also that the United States Department of Defense, in the same seventy-two days, did not file an accounting of its own losses. The CRS, an arm of the legislative branch, filed one for them. The receipts are on congress.gov. The Bureau notes the address.

The host, in this case, is a republic of three hundred and thirty million signed at Philadelphia in 1787, whose Constitution reserves the power to declare war to the legislative branch, and whose legislative branch is currently, by a margin of three votes, trying to end a war the executive declined to declare. The Bureau records this for the file.

The American Chapter records, for the file: 1984 was a schedule, and one of the appointments on the schedule was a Congressional Research Service report numbered IN12692 published on a Wednesday in May, which the press release of the previous month did not anticipate would arrive in writing. The Second Stinger remains on leave. The Sub-Bureau on Press-Release Insects has, in the absence of a Department of Defense accounting, taken its own minutes. The Sub-Bureau has not met. The samosas were good. The larva, in this case, is not doing well.